Indian Economy – November 2022

The RBI still has a lot of work to do until inflation is under control.

Geopolitical conflict leads to an us versus them worldview. Food and fuel prices are rising rapidly, while sanctions are sowing the seeds of an imminent economic failure.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been successful in bringing down inflation marginally, and the excess liquidity in the economy will gradually be drawn out. Any further rate increases can stifle growth and spending in the economy. No matter what, we cannot compromise on economic expansion and employment creation.

Goods and Services Tax

In the month of November 2022, gross goods and services tax (GST) collection was ₹1,45,867 crore. The November 2022 revenues are 11% higher than the GST receipts from the same month in the previous year. When compared to the same month last year, the revenue from domestic transactions, which includes the import of services, was 8% higher during the month and the income from imported commodities was 20% higher.

State of Manufacturing and Services

India's manufacturing sector had the fastest rise in new orders and production in last three months thanks to the country's resilient demand. Businesses expressed a great level of confidence in their growth prospects, and this optimism supported new initiatives for job creation and stock replenishment. Businesses noted a significant improvement in the demand for their products internationally.

As businesses sought to take advantage of the comparatively low-price pressures, buying levels increased at a noticeable and accelerated rate. While charges increased at the slowest rate since February, input cost inflation declined to the joint-lowest rate in 28 months. Businesses noted a significant improvement in the demand for their products internationally.

Auto Retail Sales

With March 2020 serving as an outlier, when retails were higher due to the BS-4 to BS-6 changeover, November 2022 recorded the highest retail sales in the history of the Indian automobile industry. November 2022 showed a 26% increase in auto retail sales overall.

3-wheelers(3W), passenger cars, tractors, and commercial vehicles, witnessed increases of 4%, 5%, 61%, and 6%, respectively, except for 2-wheelers (2W), which experienced a negligible decline of -0.9%. The 2W category experienced a remarkable gain of 24% YoY.

Inflation Data

The headline inflation figure for the month of November 2022 was recorded at 5.88 percent. Prices for cereals, spices, fuel, and footwear registered double-digit inflation as compared to figures from same period last year.

In a much-needed relief to household budgets, prices of oils and fats, vegetable, and sugar and confectionary items registered marginal decline as compared to prices from last year. Food inflation for the month of November 2022 was down by over 200 basis points.

Global Economy Outlook

The outlook for the world economy is negative. The pace of global growth is expected to slow as monetary policy initiatives tighten financial conditions and consumer confidence diminishes in the face of growing living expenses. As nations struggle with the price shocks and shortages of food and energy, inflation is still high and persistent.

There have been some indications of a moderation of price pressures, which has increased hopes for a slowing of the rate of monetary tightening. The US dollar has declined from its highs along with a reduction in government bond yields.

International Trade

India's total exports (goods and services combined) were USD 58.22 billion in November 2022, up 10.97% from the same month in the previous year. The total value of imports was USD 69.33 billion in November 2022, up 5.60% from the same month last year. In November 2022, non-petroleum exports and imports were USD 24.09 billion and USD 34.45 billion, respectively.

Conclusion

Economists and policy makers expect the global economy to face tough times in 2023. Every adverse economic event brings along some opportunities. Inflation is expected to come down to tolerable levels, while high policy rates will negatively impact discretionary and capital expenditure. To lessen the impact of a probable recession next year, central banks, governments, and economic blocs must coordinate their policy actions.