Ocean & Air Freight Outlook: 8 June, 2021

Each fortnight, at Cogoport, we put together news that has the most significant impact on the ocean and air freight industry, to help global importers and exporters plan their trade and international shipping more effectively.

Get relevant updates on cargo volumes and booking availability, near-term forecasts of freight rates, and freight rate trends in our Ocean & Air Freight Outlook 8 June, 2021 edition.

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India

Volume of output reduced significantly in India due to the spread of COVID 19. Space isn’t full, and there have been many cancelations recently due to the effect of the second wave. Even though the market is slow, freight rates have maintained their strength. We do not expect rates to come down any time soon. Furthermore, considering the existing scenario, we expect carriers to be hesitant to take booking from/ to India in the near term. They will instead prefer to swap equipment and use it on more profitable trade routes like EU and Pacific.

On the Air cargo front, resuming International Flights Ex- India has not yet been cleared by the Aviation Ministry. Only limited cargo/freighter flights are working with limited space Ex- India. We recommend booking at least 3 weeks in advance.

Land transport is operational but is subject to individual state laws.

Middle East

Space is overbooked till mid-June already. We expect the same trend to continue till end of June. In view of increasing COVID-19 cases in India recently, there has been some concern about severe equipment shortages in the near future. We will have to see how this plays out. We’re seeing a 25-48% decrease in capacity for the Middle East trade lane due to the abovementioned reasons.

Red Sea

Red Sea space is extremely overbooked till end of June. We expect the space will not improve till mid-July at the earliest. We also expect the rates to go up on a weekly basis, purely because of the supply-demand dynamic. Expect an increase of 15-20% in rates on this trade lane.

S.E. Asia

In view of the effect on COVID-19 on SE Asian countries, the market can best be defined as slack. A new breakout was reported in Vietnam recently, and the government there has now imposed new restrictions on economic activity. Consequently, volumes have dropped significantly, and vessel schedule has been extremely volatile due to port congestion. Most carriers are still offering reduced free time to improve equipment availability. For the Vietnam export market, the space and equipment are extremely tight till end of May. We recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advanced.

Similarly, the Malaysian Government has implemented a “Movement Control Order” until 14 June. For the Malaysia import market, space is available now. For the Malaysia export market, space is overbooked until the end of June and there are severe equipment shortages. We recommend booking Malaysian exports at least 3 weeks in advance.

Philippines is facing restrictions due to COVID-19 too. Delayed schedule of feeder vessels is causing port congestion. This is further accentuated by customs delays at Manila port. A major fire on the access road to Manila port didn’t help matters.

The situation is similar in Indonesia, where the government has extended the emergency period till end of July. Ocean shipments are operational, but there are extremely severe equipment shortages. 40HC and 45’ containers are severely constricted too.

China

Trade is normal considering the current times we are living in. Air, ocean sailing are limited, and there were breakouts reported at the Shenzen port. Due to this, some carriers are swapping for nearby ports like Nansha. Similar congestion is also being seen at Yantian port. We expect this situation to continue till end of June, with equipment shortages persisting for a few more weeks. Air and Land shipments are running normally, but capacity is limited.